How do we fix Leeds’ finishing being off the money against Newcastle?
Leeds vs Newcastle, admittedly what feels like years ago now, was quite the slog for the viewer. The only goal coming from a rare error from Illan Meslier, Leeds fans felt relatively hard done by at full time. However, this isn’t the first time this season that’s happened. Read on to find out more about Leeds’ finishing throughout the season, how it compares to our rivals and if the club are in trouble:
A quick note
As a quick note prior to the bulk of the article, I gathered relevant data in the short break, so it does not account for the most recent match which saw Burnley facing off with Watford. Furthermore, this is my first published use of Tableau Public. The tables are here if you’d like more details, and I’m always open to any advice and tips. This is very much a piece for data nerds, so I’m sorry if that’s not you.
Should Leeds have scored?
Put simply, yes. XG comfortably exceeded 1, and we had plenty of good chances, and most of these chances fell to our centre forward! One issue, that centre forward is actually a winger.
Aside from two major chances, both falling to the pacy Welsh winger, the rest of Leeds’ chances were low quality and showed a real failure for breaking through opposition lines. However, to be fair to Leeds’ newest signing, he is far from the only Leeds player underperforming in front of goal.
How do Leeds look across the season?
The entire season’s numbers are far from promising when it comes to finishing. On the following graph, the vertical axis represents total shots per game, the horizontal axis shows how players compare to their XG per game, and the size of each logo represents the player’s shot on target rate:
Only two Leeds players are exceeding their XG so far this season, and neither of them are centre forwards. Raphinha and Jack Harrison are the only Leeds forwards with over 450 minutes exceeding their XG, demonstrating a real struggle for the club in front of goal. All of the club’s centre forwards find themselves on the left-hand side of the graph, so everyone with time up top is having struggles compared to what the law of averages dictates. Where wingers are all well and good for finishing, it’s a risky strategy.
How do the individual players compare?
If the last graph was a little cluttered for your taste, that’s okay. Here’s a far plainer version, featuring only Leeds’ players. Please note that the top left logo represents Patrick Bamford, for some reason Tableau didn’t like me labelling him:
Starting with the labelless man himself, Patrick Bamford underperforms his XG to the worst degree. It’s understandable though, XG is something that balances itself out over an extended period of matches he has played a total of 459 minutes this season. Not quite an extended run. Two goals and two assists are pretty decent in such an injury ruined season, so surely those in more consistent starting positions fare better?
Now, to our two most commonly starting centre forwards. Tyler Roberts and Dan James. Tyler Roberts is on the receiving end of a lot of vitriol from the fans, and the stats seemingly back that. Taking the most shots of any Leeds player per 90 whilst underperforming, his role in the lineup is similar to that of Dan James. When at number 9 both very obviously strive for success whilst falling short with their finishing. Perhaps a dedicated number nine from a younger age group would help?
Joe “Joffy” Gelhardt is held in incredibly high regard. He has the highest shot accuracy of all of the club’s forwards with almost half of his shots on target, takes the fourth-highest number of shots per 90 in the club and performs about what you’d expect from a centre forward, very narrowly missing his XG. Combining this with his on-the-ball creativity, Joe Gelhardt might just be the club’s long-term route out of these worries. Relying on a 19-year-old to drag us away from relegation would be incredibly brave, but may not even be necessary if we look down the league.
The bottom six
Did you know Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the most underperforming centre forward in the decision this season? Or that Raphinha takes the most shots per 90 of any winger in the bottom six? Thanks to this graph, now you do!
This graph also says that we’ll likely be fine. Frank Lampard actively says he’s hoping for a Calvert-Lewin return for the league, Burnley has a huge reliance on Maxwel Cornet for their goals, and Newcastle’s finest centre forward is injured, yet again. Leeds are far from where we want to be, but as an injury-stricken squad where nobody has the opportunity to put together a good run of games, the above statistics should improve with a bit of consistency.
Basically, we should be alright.
Just don’t get injured once you’re back, Pat. Please?
Joe Blackburn
Stats from FBRef, initially gathered by StatsBomb. Compiled in Tableau Public by the author.
